World Energy Projections:

Resources, Consumption and CO2 Emission

[versión en español]

"Information is information, not matter or energy"  Norbert Wiener

"I refuse to believe that God plays dice with the world ... e=mc2" A. Einstein

"When you don't know where a road leads, it is sure as hell will take you there"

"Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? ... where is the knowledge we have lost in information?" T.S. Eliot

"Information without knowledge is noise, ... knowledge without wisdom is dangerous stupidity"

This page presents an overview on basic World Energy Data projections for the period 1993-2015. The information is compiled from studies presented by the World Resources Institute and the Energy Information Administration. The EIA forecast for total world fossil energy consumption, rises from 340 Quads in 1995 to 645 Quads in 2015. The latest projections for total world fossil energy range from 380 Quads in 1997 to 606 Quads 1n 2020, which amounts to a 60% increase in this 23 year period, or 2.1% average increase per year (see also the current EIA page and many thanks to Ingrid for this updated pointer).

The overall world fossil fuel production/consumption 1995 may be summarized as follows:

1. CO2 absorption by high productive cropland is around 800 kg CO2/km2.hour, that is around 7000 TonCO2/km2.year.

2. Assuming that the overall available world land vegetation operates at 30% of the figure stated above, the actual world CO2 average absorption capacity would amount to 2100 TonCO2/km2.year.

3. Fossil Fuel Production/Consumption (1995) are:
Natural Gas (Billion CF):            78,276 =  QuadsBTU/y:   78
Coal (Million Tons):                     5,104  =  QuadsBTU/y: 102
Petroleum Oil (1000 barrel/day): 69,378  = QuadsBTU/y: 160

4. The Fossil fuel related total world emissions are as follows (1995)

Total CO2 emission:       25,100 Million Tons
Total human population:    5,250 Million
Total Land Surface:             114 Million Km2
CO2 kg/capita:                 4,780
CO2 Ton/km2.year:             220

5. If you compare the fossil fuel related CO2 emissions at 220 Ton/km2.y with the overall ecosystem CO2 absorption capacity of 2,100 Ton/km2.y, it would seem that our non renewable sources emission amount to 10.5% of the world vegetation absorption capacity. However it must be known that if the ecosystem absorbs 2,100 TonCO2/Km2.y it also emits a closely similar amount as result of vegetal decay in food chain processes.
The key indicator of the CO2 overall balance is the concentration level of CO2 in the atmosphere, which is known to be increasing from around 250 ppm in 1850, at the beginning of the industrial revolution, to actual levels around 350-400 ppm. These apparently small increments in atmospheric CO2 level explain the also apparently small world climate temperature increases, but the effects in hurricanes, floods, and similar induced phenomena are already at all time high records in many regions of the world (China, Central and South America, France, Mozambique, etc).

6. See the graph  containing the historic CO2 atmospheric concentration data derived from Vostok polar ice cores. See the predicted calculated CO2 and Temperature scenarios for the future until 2030.

What conclusion you may see from this information? If you still need further clarifications and analysis, see note 7, otherwise you are done: congratulations!

This page is in construction. Helpers are welcome !