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The Global Warming Issue: Past and Future Trends

In this page we present all known records on atmospheric CO2 and temperature based on the Vostok Antarctic Ice Core analysis as well as the recent CO2 atmospheric CO2 records taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Based on such record evidence we have prepared an extrapolation of CO2 atmospheric concentration and expected global temperature increase for a short time period from now to year 2030. In such short period there are no such factors as variations in solar radiation or other long range cosmological effects to be accounted for. What is not known exactly yet, is what atmospheric temperature increase will be necessary to produce a total melting of the polar ice. A guess value that 4 oC or 6 oC will cause that melting is still a matter of discussion, but that may happen by year 2020 or 2025 at the present 2% rate of increase of CO2 emissions. In the case that there is no further yearly increase, assuming that 1995 emission level are maintained constant from now on, the 4 oC temperature increase will be achieved in year 2030.  

The other still unknown fact is what will be the effect of temperature increase in the intensity of storms, hurricanes, floodings, changes in insect populations, extinctions of forest areas, etc, just to mention some of the possible foreseeable phenomena related with planet temperature changes. Some conservative estimates indicate that loss in property caused by atmospheric disasters have reached figures in the dozens of billions of dollars per year in the last short time period from 1998 and later, and that those losses are all time historic records. The forecast of such calamities is grim for the next years to come, and unfortunately with the actual politics of ignoring the problem and avoiding even such minimal commitments as the Kyoto protocol, things will go from bad to worse as predicted by Murphy's laws. That is the price to maintain business as usual, and denial policies, that mainstream politicians and mass communication media are decided to favor. These self interested procrastinators are to be held responsible for all increments of disaster to come, and lets hope that at some moment some tribunal will balance their profits against the collateral damages suffered by others worldwide.

Here you may see the close correlation between CO2 and Temperature variation in planet history.  You may find that recent CO2 concentration level of 375 ppm  is much higher than any value in the previous 450,000 years, and that the rate of increase of CO2 with time is about 100 times higher than any other rate of increase in the recorded history. The greenhouse effect and the related global warming issue is a well known scientific fact established a century ago by Arrhenius, but today many 'respected' scientists in the payroll of political bureaucracies and multinational business organisation, are engaging in byzantine discussion on minor technicalities, confusing and misinforming the public opinion, asking another century of further 'scientific' and academic studies to be completely sure before any meaningful corrective action is to be taken.  

Now see in the graphs below what is the predicted future scenarios for various possible options. You should be able to draw by now your own conclusions, and if you do, you should be capable to raise your voice for the political conduction of our home planet, as the present world leaders are failing miserably in their task. They have decided now that the prioritary task is terrorism, and are compromising all the economic accumulated resources to increase the military expenses, as preparing to solve the world excesive population problem by military means when that becomes a convenient political time. USA military budget has been revamped to a level of 350,000 million dollars exceeding by far the expense level at the worst time of the cold war confrontation. According to UN estimates with a budget of some 25,000 million dollars per year it would be possible to cure the world famine, and fund programs for child health care, family planning, and basic education needs for the poorest population worldwide. But that is too expensive of course for the economic policy brokers in the richest counties.  The powerful are generous when it comes to spend in bombing, but ask for others to pay for reconstruction help or aid for the 'collateral damages' of their actions. The hegemonic power has corrupted any residual decency, any moral and ethical responsibility, replacing those values by share greed seeking its maximum efficiency and profit. All the economic power and high technology are useless if not focused primarily for the achievement of most basic human and ecological needs.

If you understand the predicament to which we all tripulants of the planet earth are confronted, and if you want to do something about, I suggest that you send this information to all the people you may reach, members of your family, of your community, your company,  your church, your club, and your friends. The technology to achieve the transmission of messages is at your disposal: the internet. Others are using that same technology massively everyday to send us all kind of unsolicited junk, easy money offers, or pornography. It is time that all decent people around the world start also using technological means for communication useful purpose. So please do something before the available time to act runs out.

Final questions: In your opinion what changes are required in our world energetic policies? do you believe that the Kyoto agreements are sufficient? what do you think of those overdeveloped countries that consider those Kyoto agreements excessive and harming the economic business requirements? can you understand and support such leaders policy views? will there be any economy as usual surviving a mayor global climatic warming cathastroph in the next 30 years? do you believe that mankind is stupid? are politicians and economists stupid? are you sleeping in your present personal comfort? are you ready to understand and act accordingly? do you have some solidarity and responsibility feeling for the next generation ?

For further reading see published in Theatlantic Monthly

Breaking the Global-Warming Gridlock  by Daniel Sarewitz and Roger Pielke Jr.

Both sides on the issue of greenhouse gases frame their arguments in terms of science, but each new scientific finding only raises new questions -- dooming the debate to be a pointless spiral. It's time, the authors argue, for a radically new approach: if we took practical steps to reduce our vulnerability to today's weather, we would go a long way toward solving the problem of tomorrow's climate

Further reference reading on Global Warming and Sea Level Rise:

Climate Change Impacts on the United States
EPA Global Warming Site: Sea Level Rise Publications
Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise
NOAA-GFDL Climat Impact of Quadrupling Atmospheric CO2
ECES - Global Warming Sea Level Rise